##
### Yield curve smoothing and residual variance of fixed income positions

by Raphael Douady, 2011

TIME SERIES MODELING
##
### Yield curve smoothing and residual variance of fixed income positions

by Raphael Douady, 2011

We model the yield curve in any given country as an object lying in an in nite-dimensional Hilbert space, the evolution of which is driven by what is known as a cylindrical Brownian motion. We assume that volatilities and correlations do not depend on rates (which hence are Gaussian). We prove that a principal component analysis (PCA) can be made. These components are called eigenmodes or principal deformations of the yield curve in this space. We then proceed to provide the best approximation of the curve evolution by a Gaussian Heath-Jarrow-Morton model that has a given nite number of factors.

Finally, we describe a method, based on nite elements, to compute the eigenmodes using historical interest rate data series and show how it can be used to compute approximate hedges which optimise a criterion depending on transaction costs and residual variance.